A growing population and rising prosperity will increase global food demand by more than half by 2050. Merely scaling up production is not an option: we must do things differently. But how?
Three approaches
Within thirty years, the global agro-food industry will have to feed almost ten billion mouths. Prosperity will also increase globally, causing an enormous increase in global food demand. Especially in Asia and Africa, demand will explode – but even in more prosperous regions like Europe and America strong growth can be expected. How can the industry keep up at this pace? Just stepping up a gear is not an option: we are reaching the limits of what our planet can provide.
Is it possible to increase production and reduce the impact on the planet at the same time? Deloitte‘s Future of Food platform explored three approaches: more advanced farming methods, conscious supply chains, and new market opportunities.
Agriculture using drones and robots
In recent decades, agricultural yields have increased enormously as a result of scale increases and technological improvements. However, this has also had a detrimental impact on the environment. Could it be done differently? Precision agriculture is part of the solution, Deloitte argues: technology can help increase yields while simultaneously reducing the use of resources such as water and fertilisers. Agriculture will become smart: expect micro-sensors, drones with cameras, robotised weed and pest control, automated harvesters and self-driving tractors.
Vertical farming also fits within this idea: by working upwards, farmers can expand the cultivation of crops without increasing land use. On the other hand, low-tech interventions could also go a long way: increasing the storage capacity of water reservoirs, making better use of rainwater, improving irrigation systems, and so on.
Smart factories and packaging
To serve their consumers, food companies must be able to count on a reliable, sustainable and qualitative supply of agricultural products at a competitive price. This requires long-term relationships based on win-win agreements. There is potential: research has shown that 73 % of millennials are willing to pay more for sustainably produced products.
An increasing number of producers are making their supply chains more transparent. New technologies (such as blockchain) facilitate better traceability. Production sites are becoming climate-neutral: Danone‘s baby food factory in Wexford, Ireland, already demonstrated it to be possible. Smart packaging improves shelf life and can avoid costly food waste.
Plant-based options
There are opportunities for new solutions and markets, Deloitte believes. Over the past decade, venture capital investments in plant-based food, cultured meat and fermentation have increased significantly. And with Burger King and McDonald’s also launching vegan menu options, you can be sure the potential is high. The use of algae is promising. In agriculture, new crops with higher yields are being developed, or livestock feed is being modified to reduce methane emissions. Data analysis and artificial intelligence facilitate more efficient, profitable and sustainable farming practices.
It is a realistic vision of the future, but there is one key condition, according to the consultants: it can only happen if everyone works together. Agricultural input suppliers, farmers, food producers and processors, food distributors and retailers, as well as governments, financial institutions and many others, must work together to build a food system that feeds the entire population while respecting the boundaries of our planet.
